More listings are showing up, but Winchester/Arlington is still tight
These numbers cover the three months ending August 31, 2026. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 110 homes for sale across Winchester and Arlington combined, up 20.9% from a year ago. More choices for buyers, yes. But 110 homes across three ZIP codes is still a thin market.
Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings grew to over 1.16 million homes for sale year over year. Winchester/Arlington is moving in the same direction. But the local numbers show supply is still nowhere near balanced.
New listings are up, but so is competition
The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 210 new listings across the three ZIP codes, up 6.6% from a year ago. More sellers are coming to market at the same time. That means pricing sharp matters more now than it did last year.
Pending sales across the market fell 6.3% year over year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. CNBC reported that U.S. pending home sales were down 8.5% in September year over year. Buyer hesitation is real everywhere, including here.
Rates are making buyers cautious
Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates surged above 7% for the first time since January 2025. That slows decisions. Fannie Mae, as reported by CNBC, forecasts the 30-year fixed rate at 7.5% for all of 2027. Buyers are doing the math carefully right now.
Realtor.com also reported that price cuts hit 20.8% of listings nationally in September, the highest share since October 2022. That is a signal. Homes priced too high are sitting longer everywhere, and Winchester/Arlington is not immune.
How each ZIP code looks
| 01890 Winchester | 02474 Arlington | 02476 Arlington | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1,700,000 | $1,132,500 | $1,075,000 |
| Price change vs. last year | up 17% | up 3.9% | up 1.1% |
| Median days on market | 21 days | 21 days | 21 days |
| Months of supply | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Sold above list price | 46.8% | 54.9% | 50.7% |
Winchester (01890): prices jumped, but fewer homes went under contract
The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price in 01890 at $1,700,000, up 17% from a year ago. That is a big move. But pending sales fell 22.1% in the same period. Buyers are still active, just more selective at that price point.
Homes for sale in 01890 rose 25% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. More supply at the top of the market means pricing has to earn its number. The average sale-to-list ratio was exactly 100%, down 0.8 points from last year. Still right at list, but the cushion is thinner.
Arlington 02474: the tightest supply in the market
The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted just 1.1 months of supply in 02474. That is the lowest of the three ZIP codes. Homes still moved fast: the median was 21 days on market. But days on market was 7 days longer than a year ago. A little more breathing room for buyers, not a lot.
The average sale-to-list ratio in 02474 was 103.5%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Homes are still selling above list on average. Nearly 55 in 100 sold above asking. That said, the share of homes that sold above list fell 6 points from last year. The edge is still there, but it is a bit softer.
Arlington 02476: the most new listings, the most sales growth
New listings in 02476 jumped 57.1% year over year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is a real shift. More competition among sellers. Homes sold rose 35.3% too, so demand kept up. But the share of homes that sold above list fell 21.9 points, the sharpest drop in the market.
Days on market in 02476 was 21 days, but that was 9 days longer than a year ago. More supply and longer times are a clear signal: price it well from day one, or it will sit.
The wider picture: rates and rents
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Winchester's 17% price gain in 01890 is well above that. Arlington's gains of 3.9% and 1.1% are closer to the national pace.
Realtor.com reported the median asking rent in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro area was $2,258 in September 2026. That is a data point for anyone weighing renting versus buying in this market.
- More homes are coming to market in Winchester and Arlington.
- Supply is up 20.9% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.
- But with 1.1 to 2.1 months of supply depending on the ZIP, this is still a seller's market.
- Rates above 7%, per Realtor.com, are making buyers more careful.
- Homes priced right are still selling at or above list.
- Homes priced too high are taking longer.
One more thing: these numbers cover whole ZIP codes. One street can read very differently from the ZIP average. A few doors down can mean a different price, a different pace, a different outcome.
Your next step
(508) 789-8830Text me your address and I will send back where your Winchester or Arlington home sits against what actually sold nearby, including days on market and sale-to-list ratio. Takes a day, costs nothing.
Text me- Real Estate Data Aggregator numbers for ZIPs 01890, 02474 and 02476, the three months ending August 31, 2026, compared with the same months of 2025. Real Estate Data Aggregator last updated them on Oct 7, 2026.
- Realtor.com: September 2026 Rental Report: Median Asking Rent Declines at the Slowest Pace in 3 Years, Oct 15, 2026
- Realtor.com: September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends: Price Cuts Hit 4-Year Highs as Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Sep 30, 2026
- Federal Housing Finance Agency: FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.3 Percent in July; Up 2.6 Percent from Last Year | FHFA, Sep 29, 2026
- Redfin: Housing Market Update: Asking Prices Fall For the First Time Since March, Oct 15, 2026
- CNBC: Fannie Mae sharply raises mortgage rate forecast for 2027, Oct 14, 2026